Research
Research Overview
I study how firms and communities respond to economic shocks in settings where institutions, infrastructure, and state capacity are constrained. My research shows that when governments cannot credibly insure against disruption, firms rationally over-invest in private substitutes — what I term adaptive misallocation — reinforcing inequality and weakening long-run productivity.
I combine structural models, quasi-experimental variation, and network-based field experiments to understand how shocks reshape resource allocation and behaviour. My work uses dense South Asian cities as natural laboratories to design scalable policies that strengthen resilience, improve public-goods provision, and enhance state capacity.
Primary fields: Development Economics; Economics of Shocks & Crises
Secondary fields: Production Networks; Industrial Organisation (Empirical); Macro-Development
Publications & Working Papers
Misallocation, Production Networks & Shocks
The Architecture of Disaster-Induced Misallocation
Mapping Efficiency Gradients in Electricity Distribution Systems
Asymmetric Industrial Reorganisation and Adaptive Misallocation Post Disasters
Journal · Twitter Thread · Ungated · VoxDev
Abstract:
This paper presents evidence on how firms adapted following the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, with a focus on the vulnerabilities that drove differential impacts and the role of minimal government aid expectations. Using a difference-in-differences methodology on a nationally representative panel of 390 firms, it explores three key dimensions: immediate disruption, short-term adaptation, and long-run resilience. The seismic shock damaged stock and reduced sales asymmetrically. Fragile intermediaries—firms with moderate capital-labour ratios—suffered the largest declines in output, while labour- and capital-intensive firms showed greater resilience. By tracing the production isoquant, the non-linear adjustment highlights heterogeneity in capital–labour substitutability, reflecting (weakly) capital-saving shifts in labour-intensive sectors and labour-saving (capital-augmenting) shifts in capital-intensive sectors, with fragile intermediaries least able to reallocate efficiently. Firms prioritised skilled labour retention, reduced non-production roles, increased operational hours, and diversified across markets. There was no evidence of innovation. A theoretical model of adaptive misallocation formalises how over-investment in short-term resilience strategies—driven by policy uncertainty—diverts capital away from productivity, weakens public-private trust, and undermines long-run resilience.
Behaviour, Networks & Crisis Response
Salience, Access, and the Diffusion of Public Good Norms: Theory and Evidence from Urban Networks
Project Brief:
I develop a general threshold model of adoption in dense, information-rich urban networks, where individual compliance depends on private incentives and socially mediated influences. I test the framework in a large-scale randomised controlled trial demonstrating that lowering adoption costs and reinforcing salience at central network nodes shifts equilibrium compliance. The analysis identifies generalisable mechanisms through which adoption thresholds evolve in high-density networked environments.
Building Adaptive Frontlines for Health Technology Adoption: Theory and Evidence from an Urban Metropolis
Project Brief:
This paper extends my threshold model of adoption to vaccine uptake in high-density urban networks, where financial costs are minimal but behavioural frictions (misinformation, mistrust, logistical barriers) dominate. In a randomised trial, I tested whether iterative community engagement could recalibrate adoption thresholds. Mobilisation significantly increased uptake, but intensification produced no further gains, highlighting how behavioral frictions interact with network structure and why adaptive — rather than maximal — mobilisation is key.