Research

Research Overview

I study how firms respond to shocks such as natural disasters, disruptions, and institutional breakdowns. My research investigates the interplay between economic and institutional constraints—such as infrastructure failures, financial frictions, and weak state capacity—and how these shape firm adaptation, capital flows, and long-run productivity in developing economies.

I work across two related streams: one on shock-induced misallocation, and another on behaviour change during crises—both anchored in policy-relevant design.

Fields: Development, Macro-Development, Industrial Organisation

Publication

Asymmetric Industrial Reorganisation and Adaptive Misallocation Post Disasters

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change (2025): 1–47
Journal Link · Twitter Thread

Abstract
This paper presents evidence on how firms adapted following the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, with a focus on the vulnerabilities that drove differential impacts and the role of minimal government aid expectations. Using a difference-in-differences methodology on a nationally representative panel of 390 firms, it explores three key dimensions: immediate disruption, short-term adaptation, and long-run resilience. The seismic shock damaged stock and reduced sales asymmetrically. Fragile intermediaries—firms with moderate capital-labour ratios—suffered the largest declines in output, while labour- and capital-intensive firms showed greater resilience. Firms prioritised skilled labour retention, reduced non-production roles, increased operational hours, and diversified across markets. There was no evidence of innovation. A theoretical model of adaptive misallocation formalises how over-investment in short-term resilience strategies—driven by policy uncertainty—diverts capital away from productivity, weakens public-private trust, and undermines long-run resilience.

Working Papers

Architecture of Shock-Induced Inter-Firm Resource Reallocation

Building Adaptive and Effective Frontlines: Community Engagement in Resource-Constrained Emergencies

Inducing Habit Formation within Non-Spatial, Information-Dense Structures in a Public Health Emergency

Work in Progress

Public Goods Provision, Immunisation, and Climate Change in the Indus Basin

(Complete list available offline.)